Performance Ledger
Systematic tracking of XGBoost model predictions since December 22, 2025.
Overall Accuracy
67.2%
571W - 279L
850 total resolved picks
Last 30 Days
N/A%
0 predictions
Rolling monthly performance
Last 7 Days
N/A%
0 predictions
Recent form indicator
4-Week Performance Trend
Aug 31 - Sep 6
0%
0 picks
Sep 7 - Sep 13
0%
0 picks
Sep 14 - Sep 20
0%
0 picks
Sep 21 - Sep 27
0%
0 picks
See Today’s Model Picks
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Predictions ready 10–12 hours before US tip-off
Model Calibration
Calibration metrics reflect the current production model only. Overall accuracy metrics include all resolved predictions.
Very Low Confidence
<55% confidence
46.8%
59W - 67L
Expected: 50-55%
Low Confidence
55-66% confidence
62.8%
150W - 89L
Expected: 55-66%
Medium Confidence
66-74% confidence
69.2%
81W - 36L
Expected: 66-74%
High Confidence
74%+ confidence
82.3%
214W - 46L
Expected: 74-85%
Model Performance Dashboard
Deep-dive into XGBoost_TOP17 — Brier score, ROC curve, expected vs observed win rates across all probability bins, per-team accuracy scatter and cumulative accuracy vs backtest.
Open dashboardKey Performance Insights
Sample Size
850 predictions tracked since launch provides statistically meaningful performance data.
Target Performance
NBA prediction ceiling is approximately 68-75% accuracy due to inherent randomness.
Timestamp Verification
Every prediction is logged before game start. Timestamps are immutable.
Continuous Improvement
Model performance is monitored daily for feature engineering and tuning.