Zero Look-Ahead Bias · Pre-Tipoff Consensus Snapshots
Performance Ledger
Systematic tracking of NBA prediction performance timestamped before tip-off.
Moneyline Record
66.7%
88W - 44L
132 picks graded against closing decimal odds
Last 30 Days
66.7%
132 predictions
Rolling monthly indicator
Last 7 Days
70.5%
44 predictions
Recent form indicator
4-Week Trend (Moneyline)
Weekly Batch WindowsOct 12 - Oct 18
0%
0 picks
Oct 19 - Oct 25
62.8%
43 picks
Oct 26 - Nov 1
67.3%
49 picks
Nov 2 - Nov 8
70%
40 picks
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Predictions ready 10–12 hours before US tip-off
Moneyline Calibration (2026–27)
Platt-calibrated win probabilities vs observed game outcomes.
Very Low Confidence
In Range<55%
54.5%
12W - 10L
Expected: 50-55%
Low Confidence
Underperforming55-66%
53.7%
22W - 19L
Expected: 55-66%
Medium Confidence
Outperforming66-74%
83.9%
26W - 5L
Expected: 66-74%
High Confidence
Underperforming74%+
73.7%
28W - 10L
Expected: 74-85%
Interactive Model Calibration Suite
Brier · ROC AUC · ECEDeep-dive into XGBoost TOP17 & Ridge Totals — Brier score, ROC curve, expected vs observed win rates across all probability bins, per-team accuracy scatter and cumulative accuracy.
Explore full Moneyline diagnosticsKey Model Insights
Sample Size Integrity
Grading 264 settled predictions across primary markets without manual exclusions.
Disciplined Market Passing
Picks without statistically verified probability edge are marked as PASS to protect overall bankroll expectancy.
Pre-Market Timestamping
All predictions are locked into Supabase 10–12 hours before tip-off.
Dynamic Shrinkage Blend
Totals incorporate a 70/30 market-consensus blend with empirical pre-blend bias regularization.